Weekly Market View – w/c 14th March, 2022
Market Drivers – March
We understand the business energy market can be challenging.
Our specialists compile a Market Drivers report each month.
We have highlighted Bearish drivers, expected to contribute to the market lowering, and Bullish drivers, expected to contribute to the market going higher.
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- Bearish Drivers
- Another monthly record forecast for LNG send out.
- Softer heating demand in both UK & North West Europe with temperatures remaining mostly above or around normal.
- North West Europe storage inventory to end March above 2018 levels and back in the 5-year range.
- Potential de-escalation at the Ukraine border would lead to de-risking across the near curve.
- Strong levels of wind generation are forecast to continue into March in both UK and Germany, gas for power demand remains lower than normal.
- Industrial demand in both NWE and UK remains impacted by the high price environment.
- Bullish Drivers
- Risk for colder weather than currently forecast and subsequent ramp-up in demand.
- North West Europe LNG send out may be impacted by Qatar maintenance and or cooler temperatures in Asia.
- Any escalation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, if Russia does invade, prices would surpass the previous highs observed in Dec and NS2 would no doubt be sanctioned.
- Any unplanned outages on the NCS and UK Continental Shelf after a relatively unplanned maintenance-free start to the year.
- Any further outages on the much-maligned French Nuclear sector.