Weekly Market View – w/c 24th August, 2026
Market Drivers August 2026
Bearish Drivers
· Warm weather outlook – September temperatures are forecast above seasonal norms, limiting heating-related gas demand.
· Weaker Asian LNG demand – Cooling demand is expected to decline as summer temperatures ease, potentially freeing additional LNG cargoes for Europe.
· Lower gas-for-power demand – NWE gas-fired power demand is forecast 16% lower month-on-month, helped by improved French nuclear availability and lower power demand.
· Looser UK balance – IUK maintenance will restrict UK exports to the Continent during September, retaining more gas domestically and providing some downside support to NBP.
· Improving UK production – UKCS production is forecast to recover from around 72mcm/d in August to 79mcm/d in September.
Bullish Drivers
· Middle East LNG disruption – Qatari and UAE LNG exports are now not expected to normalise until November due to continued restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz.
· Low European storage – NWE inventories are forecast at just 67% full by 1 November, the lowest pre-winter level since 2018, falling to 13% by March 2027 in the central scenario.
· Cold-winter risk – A cold scenario could see European storage fully depleted by early March, creating substantial upside price risk.
· Norwegian maintenance – Norwegian exports are forecast to fall from around 318mcm/d in August to 292mcm/d in September as maintenance intensifies.
· Seasonal demand recovery – LDZ and industrial gas demand are expected to increase as temperatures cool and European industry returns from summer shutdowns.
August’s market outlook remains bullish and increasingly risk-sensitive, driven primarily by continued disruption to Middle Eastern LNG flows and low European storage levels. Restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz have delayed the expected recovery in Qatari and UAE LNG exports until November, weakening supply expectations into winter. NWE storage is now forecast to reach only 67% fullness by 1 November, down from 74% previously, with inventories potentially falling to 13% by March 2027 under the central scenario. Norwegian supply has remained relatively strong during August, although heavier September maintenance is expected to reduce flows, while exceptionally warm weather has kept demand subdued. Overall, the market remains vulnerable to further geopolitical or supply disruption, with LSEG forecasting September TTF at €59–64/MWh and NBP at 145–155p/th.