Weekly Market View – w/c 19th January, 2026
Market Drivers January 2026
Bearish Drivers
· Stable Norwegian pipeline exports into the UK and NWE
· Strong LNG arrivals helped offset higher demand
· Periods of milder weather forecasts briefly capped price rallies
· Adequate system flexibility prevented extreme short-term tightness
Bullish Drivers
· Colder-than-average weather increased heating demand and accelerated storage withdrawals
· Low wind generation raised gas-for-power demand
· Below-normal European storage levels heightened scarcity concerns
· Investment fund short-covering amplified upward price moves
· Geopolitical risks supported risk premiums across European gas markets
So far in the first month of 2026, the gas market moved from largely sideways trading into a sharp mid-month rally. Colder-than-average weather increased heating demand and accelerated storage withdrawals, while lower wind generation, fund short-covering, and wider European supply concerns added further support. Although Norwegian pipeline flows and LNG arrivals helped limit the upside, tightening storage levels and heightened geopolitical and weather risks drove increased volatility, leaving prices around 12–13% higher than December levels by late January.
Looking ahead to February, early weather forecasts suggest the UK will remain colder than average, although less severe than January. Total North West Europe gas demand is expected to remain strong at around 7,899 GWh/day, roughly 380 GWh/day lower month-on-month. Norwegian pipeline exports are forecast to remain broadly stable, while LNG arrivals are expected to increase to a record high. This is driven by global export growth and strong European price premiums, making Europe an attractive destination for LNG. As a result, storage withdrawals should fall by about 1,300 GWh/day month-on-month to around 3,150 GWh/day.
Despite this, total NWE storage levels are projected to drop to 108 TWh (19% full) by the end of February. This is significantly lower than previous forecasts of 141 TWh (25%) and would mark the lowest end-of-February level on record. The current record low is 116 TWh, set in 2018 during the “Beast from the East,” when severe cold caused sharp storage drawdowns. If these conditions persist, we expect February spot prices to trade broadly in line with recent forward-month levels.
The market is likely to remain cautious throughout the month, as participants try to manage a fragile balance and avoid severe storage depletion ahead of summer. The summer outlook remains comfortable, with storage expected to fully refill between August and October, depending on the scenario.
There are, however, risks around this baseline. A much warmer February could ease demand and push prices lower. On the other hand, stronger competition from Asian buyers for uncommitted LNG cargoes, or any supply disruption in this already tight market, could push prices higher again—potentially toward €40/MWh for TTF and 100p/th for NBP.