Weekly Market View – w/c 16th February, 2026
Market Drivers February 2026
Bearish Drivers
· Mild February weather – Above-seasonal temperatures reducing residential and commercial heating demand.
· Lower spot demand – Softer UK system demand easing prompt tightness.
· Strong LNG arrivals – Healthy LNG send-out into UK terminals improving near-term supply balance.
· Comfortable prompt system balance – Reduced immediate scarcity compared to January rally conditions.
· Broader commodity softness – Weaker global gas benchmarks (including TTF and Henry Hub) weighing on sentiment.
· Demand destruction effects – Continued industrial demand weakness amid high energy costs.
Bullish Drivers
· Below-average UK & EU storage levels – Reduced buffer versus historical norms keeps the market sensitive to late-winter cold risk.
· Storage withdrawal pace – Ongoing draws through winter maintain tightening concerns.
· North Sea & Norwegian supply volatility – Unplanned outages and maintenance risks underpin prompt pricing.
· Geopolitical risk premium – Ongoing global supply uncertainty continues to support risk pricing.
· Potential late cold snap risk – Weather optionality keeps upside volatility embedded in the curve.
In February 2026, the UK gas market was driven by a combination of strong LNG imports and steady Norwegian pipeline flows, which helped ease supply concerns despite below-average UK and EU storage levels. Early-month cold spells briefly lifted demand, but milder and windier weather later in the month reduced gas-for-heating and gas-for-power requirements. As a result, near-term NBP prices softened, with improved supply flexibility offsetting the ongoing sensitivity to storage levels and late-winter weather risks.
Looking ahead to March, the weather view has turned cooler again, raising the risk that Northwest Europe (NWE) gas stocks end winter at very low levels, despite expectations of record LNG arrivals. The EC46 points to below-seasonal temperatures keeping demand firm at 6,182GWh/d — lower month-on-month but significantly higher year-on-year. Stable Norwegian flows and domestic production should be supported by reduced net exports and strong LNG inflows of nearly 3,000GWh/d. As a result, withdrawals are forecast to slow materially, with the potential for injections late in March.
Even with record LNG, the storage outlook remains tight. NWE inventories are projected to fall to around 67TWh (12% full) by end-March — the second lowest level on record after 2018’s “Beast from the East.” LNG is therefore expected to play an increasingly important role, potentially covering 43% of total demand in Q1 2026, up from 35% a year earlier. The system remains fragile: removing just 450GWh/d of supply would push stocks below 2018 lows.
Given this backdrop, there is a moderately bullish view for March.